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      • 您當(dāng)前的位置: 首頁-資訊-詳情

        最新資訊:Protectionism weakens US trade, experts say

        2023-01-30 13:09:27來源:云視網(wǎng)

        Bleakforecastspelledoutforreturntobrighterdaysofliberalization


        (資料圖片僅供參考)

        PhotoshowsaviewofNanshaPortinGuangzhou,SouthChina"sGuangdongprovince.[Photoprovidedtochinadaily.com.cn]

        ProtectionistUStradepolicyinrecentyearshasproducedabiggertradedeficitandjoblosses,weakenedthecountry"sproductivityandhasdiminisheditsdiplomaticleadership,tradeexpertssay.

        "Theprotectionistpolicy,justduringthe(Donald)Trumpadministration,addedoveronehundredbilliondollarstotheUStradedeficit,"saidJackMidgley,principaloftheglobalconsultancyMidgley&CoandanadjunctassociateprofessorintheSecurityStudiesProgramatGeorgetownUniversity,Washington.

        "That"sanimmediateadverseimpact.Thejoblossesassociatedwiththatimpactareinthehundredsofthousandsofmanufacturingjobs.Sothat"sanothernegativeimpactontheUSeconomy.So,itturnsoutemployment,tradedeficit,investmentinmanufacturing,infrastructure,andsoforth,allextremelynegative."

        GaryClydeHufbauer,aseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsinWashington,said:"ThistrendhasadecidedlynegativeimpactonUSproductivitygrowth,nowlessthan0.5percentannually.Inthegoodolddaysitwasnearly2percentannually.AndUSdiplomaticleadershipisbadlyweakenedbythecurrenttrend."

        Inapolicybrieftitled"HavetradeagreementsbeenbadforAmerica?"publishedlastmonth,HufbauerandAlanWolff,anotherseniorfellowatthePetersonInstitute,said"expandedtradehasgreatlybenefitedtheUSeconomy"andthat"protectionismisnotthesolution".

        Accordingtothebrief,globaltradeandliberalizationhavehelpedlifthundredsofmillionsofpeopleoutofpovertyworldwideandhelpedraiseUSGDPtenfoldsinceWorldWarII,butprotectionismunderpresidentDonaldTrumpandhissuccessorPresidentJoeBidenunderminedUSauthorityglobally.

        "US-ChinatradehasbeenverybeneficialfortheUSoverthepasttwodecades,"Hufbauersaid."IamverysorrythisisnotrecognizedbymostUSpoliticalleaders."

        "Standstill"expected

        Hufbauersaidheexpects"astandstill"inUS-Chinatraderelationsoverthenexttwoyears."Notgetmuchworse,butnotgetmuchbetter,either."

        HufbauerforecastedthatRepublicansintheUSCongresswouldcontinuetocallfornewinternationaltradeagreements,andvoicedskepticismthatBidenortheUSTradeRepresentativeKatherineTaiwouldrespond.

        Instead,theywillcontinuetonegotiatethe"Indo-Pacific"economicframework,theinitiativeontradewithTaiwan,andtrytocalmtheelectricvehicledisputewiththeEuropeanUnion,headded.

        Hufbauersaidhelackedoptimismaboutany"bigmove"bytheUSininternationaltrade.Heforecast"areversalbyBiden"toseekUSadmissiontotheComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership.

        "Igivethisonlya25percentchance.AnotherbigmovewouldbeafreetradeagreementwiththeUK.Again,onlya25percentchance."

        TheUSwouldcontinuetoimposestrictsanctionsonRussia,Hufbauersaid.

        MidgleyforecastedtherewouldbenobigUSmovesinadvancingtradethisyear.Reasonsincludethemacroeconomicenvironmentandthedomesticpoliticalregime,hesaid.

        "Idon"tbelievetherewillbeanybigmovesin2023.…Unfortunately,notmuchroominthatenvironmentfornewfreetradeagreements.AndsimilarfactorswillmakeitdifficulttomakeprogressonUS-Chinatradeinoneortwoyears.

        "Andtheprospectofarecessionnextyear,plusthepoliticalenvironment,whichisaRepublicanCongress.Ithinkit"sveryunlikelythatinthenext12to24months…Idoubtverymuchthattherewillbeadvances…intheareaoffreetradewithChina."

        Themostimportantreasonfor"nobigmove"withChinaorothertradepartnersisaUSpolicytrendthatisnotconducivetotrade,Midgleysaid.

        "WhatishappeningisthattheUnitedStatesiscontinuingtoemphasizeenergyindependence,massiveincreasesindefensespendinganddefenseinvestment,andalotofthatiscrowdingoutattemptstoliberalizetradepolicy.…don"tseethepoliticalroomortheeconomicincentivefortheAmericangovernmenttodomuchintheareaoffreetrade."

        PoliticalpressurefromtheUSHouseofRepresentatives,nowinRepublicanhands,willfavorprotectionism,Midgleysaid.

        HeexpressedconcernthatthefirstthingtheHouseSpeakerKevinMcCarthywantstodois"runofftoTaiwanandputfingersintotheeyesoftheChinesegovernment",whichwouldhurtUS-Chinarelationsandreducethechanceofbilateralconversationontrade.

        Ifyouhaveanyproblemswiththisarticle,pleasecontactusatapp@chinadaily.com.cnandwe"llimmediatelygetbacktoyou.

        標(biāo)簽: llimmediatelygetbacktoyou cnandwe investmentinmanufacturing

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