今日播報!West's smearing of BRI as 'debt trap' won't help developing countries
TheinternationalcommunityhasbeencriticizingtheBeltandRoadInitiative,claimingitwillpushtheBeltandRoadcountriesintoadebttrap.
Yettherehasbeennosubstantiveresearchconfirmingtheclaimistrue.Suchcriticismsaremostlypartofthepoliticizationofwhatessentiallyisaneconomicissue,especiallysincedatashowthattheBeltandRoadInitiativecanshortenlogisticstimebyabout2.5percent,reduceglobaltradecostsby2.2percent,andincreaseglobalrealincomebyashighas2.9percent.
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Government"sdebtdoesn"tstuntgrowth
AccordingtotheBarro-Ricardoeffect,governmentdebtdoesnotaffecteconomicgrowthatall.AndresearchbytheInternationalMonetaryFundshowsthatthereisanoptimaldebtratiobetweentheGDPgrowthofthedifferentcountriesandtheirgovernments"sovereigndebt.Accordingtothisstudy,ifdebtreachestheoptimalratio,itwillmaximizetheeconomicgrowthrate.
Economistsacrosstheworldhavebeendebatingontherelationshipbetweengovernmentdebtandeconomicdevelopment.YetsincetheBeltandRoadprojectsarebeingimplementedonlysince2013,thereisnotenoughdatatocarryoutanin-depthstudyintotherelationshipbetweentheinfrastructureprojectsandtheeconomicgrowthoftheBeltandRoadcountries.
However,thishasnotstoppedeconomists,politicalscientists,governmentofficials,thinktanksandthemediafromIndia,theUnitedStates,Australiaandothercountriesto"classify"itaspartofChina"s"debt-trapdiplomacy".
Forexample,Indiangeo-strategistBrahmaChellaneypublishedanarticleintheWorldPressSyndicateinJanuary2017inwhichhehadusedtheterm"debttrap"tostigmatizetheBeltandRoadInitiative.ScholarslikeChellaneyaccuseChinaofusingopaqueloanconditionstoprovideinfrastructurefinancinginordertogainaccesstothesecountries"militaryorstrategicresources.
Byblatantlytermingthisasaformofdebt-trapdiplomacy,thescholarsportraytheBeltandRoadInitiativeinabadlight.However,thepoliticiansandpoliticalscientistsfromtheabove-mentionedcountriesandregionsthatpoliticizeeconomicissuesarenotwithoutcounter-arguments.
Forexample,leadersandofficialfiguresofcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadroutes,suchasZambia,KenyaandAngolawhichmanyWesternobserverssayarecaughtinChina"sdebttrap,haveondifferentoccasionspubliclyrefutedtheerroneousremarks.
Indeed,evensomeprominentUSscholarsandthinktankshavestudiedthedataandpublishedreportsrefutingthe"Chinadebt-traptheory".Forexample,DeborahBrautigamandMegRithmire,twodistinguishedprofessorsofpoliticaleconomyatJohnsHopkinsUniversityandHarvardUniversity,respectively,haveassertedthatChina"s"debttrap"isamyth.ThescholarsalsosaidthatinsomecountrieslikeMontenegro,KenyaandZambia,thereisclearevidencethattheWesternmediaspreadsuchfearswithoutprovidinganyevidencetosupporttheirclaim.
Also,aRANDCorporationreportfromtheUSsaysthatrailwayconnectivitywillboosttheexportvalueofcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadby2.8percent.
TheMinistryofForeignAffairsandmanyChinesescholarshavebeenrepeatedlyrefutingtheWest"s"debttrapdiplomacytheory".ForeignMinistryspokesmanWangWenbin,forinstance,quotedWorldBankdataonJuly2022tosaythat49Africancountrieshadborrowed$696billion.Butsome75percentcamefrommultilateralfinancialinstitutionsandprivatefinancialinstitutions.
FourinterestingfeaturesofBRI
OurresearchintotheBeltandRoadInitiativehasuncoveredfourinterestingfeatures.
First,ironically,politiciansincountriesalongtheBeltandRoadroutewhohypedupthe"debttraptheory"arethefirstonestostrengthencooperationwithChinawhentheycometopower.Forinstanceiftheyhappentobeintheopposition,theycangainenoughpublicsupportandthusvotestoousttherulingpartybyleveragingChina"s"debttrapdiplomacytheory".
Whatisreallyironicisthatoncetheseoppositionpoliticianscometopower,theydoaU-turnandseekChineseinvestmentsbecausetheyunderstandtheimportanceofboostingthenationaleconomy.
Second,akeyfeatureofChineseinvestmentinBeltandRoadcountriesisthatittendstofocusonlong-termmutualeconomicbenefits.ThisisanaturalconsequenceofChina"spoliticalandsocialstructures.
ItisthesuretythattheChinesegovernmentwillhonoritscommitmentsthathasearnedChinasupportandpraisefromtheBeltandRoadcountries.ThisisveryimportantastheperiodofROII(returnoninfrastructureinvestment)tendstobeverylongandprofitscannotbemadeintheshortterm.
NowonderChineseinvestorsinBeltandRoadcountriesalwayspaygreaterattentiontolong-termratherthanshort-termeconomicbenefits.Forexample,accordingtoIndonesia"sofficialestimates,theJakarta-BandungrailwaylineinIndonesia,whichcouldstartoperationsfromMay,isbuiltbyChinaforacostofabout$8billion.
Butwhileitislikelytogeneratemorethan$23.1billioninrevenue,itwilltakethenext40yearstorealizeit,accordingtoourresearch.
ItisbecauseofsuchinfrastructureprojectsanddeepeningdiplomatictiesthatSino-Indonesiantraderelationswillcontinuetodeepen,buckingtheglobaltrend.Indeed,in2021bilateraltradereached$124.43billion,up58.6percentyear-on-year.
Also,ChinahasbeenIndonesia"ssecond-largestforeigninvestorsince2019,andhasdiversifieditsinvestmentinfieldssuchaselectricity,mining,automobilemanufacturing,emergingnetworkindustries,aswellasfinancing.
Third,interestingly,oneofthereasonswhydebtorcountrieswanttoborrowmoneyfromChinatobuildorimproveinfrastructureisbecauseitcanhelpthempaytheirdebtstoWesterncountries.
Atpresent,about70percentoftheinvestmentsinBeltandRoadprojectsareconcentratedininfrastructureconstruction,andtherestinthefieldssuchastheenergy,health,innovativetechnology,andtourismsectors.
BeltandRoadcountriesborrowmoneyfromChinatoimprovetheirinfrastructure,inordertodeveloptheireconomysotheycanrepaytheloanstakenfromWesterncountriesandmultilateralfinancialinstitutions.Improvementofinfrastructurecanboosttheeconomyandincreasegovernmentrevenue.That"swhytheJoeBidenadministrationhaslaunchedaninfrastructureplanworthmorethan$1.2trillion,hopingtostimulatetheUnitedStates"economicrecovery.
TheinfrastructureconstructionneedsoftheBeltandRoadcountrieswereignoredbytheUSandEuropeancountriesandtheirbanks.Incontrast,ChinaiswillingtolendahelpinghandtosuchcountriesandprovideChinesetechnologyandstandardstobuildinfrastructurefacilities.
OnlybypromotingeconomicdevelopmentandthusincreasingtaxrevenuescanagovernmentgeneratemorefundstorepaytheloansithastakenfromWesterncountriesandmultilateralfinancialinstitutions,boosttheeconomyandimprovepeople"slivelihoods.
Fourth,thecontinuousandsubstantialinterestratehikesbytheUSFederalReserveandthenewwaveofCOVID-19infectionsaretherealchallengesBeltandRoadcountrieshavetoovercometoproperlymanagetheirdebts.Infact,theFed"srecentaggressiveinterestratehikeshavecauseddebtcrisesinmanyBeltandRoadcountrieswithrelativelyhighUSdollardebts.
ManyBeltandRoadcountrieswithsignificantdebtrisksgenerallyhavediversecreditors—fromtheUStoEuropeancountriestoJapanandfromtheIMFtotheWorldBank.Chinaiscertainlynottheonlycreditorofcountrieswithhighdebtrisks.
TheWestmusthelpdevelopingcountries
SoinsteadofaccusingChinaofforcingBeltandRoadcountriesintoadebttrap,theWestshouldfocusonhowtohelpthedebtorcountriestoovercomethedebtchallengesandstrengthenconsultationandcooperationamongcountriestoprovidesystematicandcomprehensivesolutionsforcountries"debtresolution.
Afterall,theonlylong-termandrealsolutionistoimplementacomprehensiveplanandfocusonassistingthesecountriestohastentheireconomicrecoveryandenhancetheirdevelopmentcapabilities.
CharlesDarwinfamouslysaidthattheeventualsurvivalofaspeciesisnotbecauseitisthestrongestorthesmartest;itisbecauseitismostadaptabletochange.AmongalltheinvestmentprojectspromotingthedevelopmentoftheBeltandRoadInitiative,China"srateofinterestonloansmaynotbethelowestandChinesetechnologymaynotbethebestintheworld,butChineseprojectsarecertainlybestsuitedtopromotetheeconomicdevelopmentofBeltandRoadcountries.
FengDaHsuanisthehonorarydeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitute;andLiangHaimingisthedeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitute.Theviewsdon"tnecessarilyrepresentthoseofChinaDaily.
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