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      • 您當前的位置: 首頁-資訊-詳情

        今日播報!West's smearing of BRI as 'debt trap' won't help developing countries

        2023-01-19 12:25:32來源:CHINA
        MazerasBridgeoftheMombasa-NairobistandardgaugerailwayinKenya,May12,2017.[Photo/Xinhua]

        TheinternationalcommunityhasbeencriticizingtheBeltandRoadInitiative,claimingitwillpushtheBeltandRoadcountriesintoadebttrap.

        Yettherehasbeennosubstantiveresearchconfirmingtheclaimistrue.Suchcriticismsaremostlypartofthepoliticizationofwhatessentiallyisaneconomicissue,especiallysincedatashowthattheBeltandRoadInitiativecanshortenlogisticstimebyabout2.5percent,reduceglobaltradecostsby2.2percent,andincreaseglobalrealincomebyashighas2.9percent.


        (資料圖)

        Government"sdebtdoesn"tstuntgrowth

        AccordingtotheBarro-Ricardoeffect,governmentdebtdoesnotaffecteconomicgrowthatall.AndresearchbytheInternationalMonetaryFundshowsthatthereisanoptimaldebtratiobetweentheGDPgrowthofthedifferentcountriesandtheirgovernments"sovereigndebt.Accordingtothisstudy,ifdebtreachestheoptimalratio,itwillmaximizetheeconomicgrowthrate.

        Economistsacrosstheworldhavebeendebatingontherelationshipbetweengovernmentdebtandeconomicdevelopment.YetsincetheBeltandRoadprojectsarebeingimplementedonlysince2013,thereisnotenoughdatatocarryoutanin-depthstudyintotherelationshipbetweentheinfrastructureprojectsandtheeconomicgrowthoftheBeltandRoadcountries.

        However,thishasnotstoppedeconomists,politicalscientists,governmentofficials,thinktanksandthemediafromIndia,theUnitedStates,Australiaandothercountriesto"classify"itaspartofChina"s"debt-trapdiplomacy".

        Forexample,Indiangeo-strategistBrahmaChellaneypublishedanarticleintheWorldPressSyndicateinJanuary2017inwhichhehadusedtheterm"debttrap"tostigmatizetheBeltandRoadInitiative.ScholarslikeChellaneyaccuseChinaofusingopaqueloanconditionstoprovideinfrastructurefinancinginordertogainaccesstothesecountries"militaryorstrategicresources.

        Byblatantlytermingthisasaformofdebt-trapdiplomacy,thescholarsportraytheBeltandRoadInitiativeinabadlight.However,thepoliticiansandpoliticalscientistsfromtheabove-mentionedcountriesandregionsthatpoliticizeeconomicissuesarenotwithoutcounter-arguments.

        Forexample,leadersandofficialfiguresofcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadroutes,suchasZambia,KenyaandAngolawhichmanyWesternobserverssayarecaughtinChina"sdebttrap,haveondifferentoccasionspubliclyrefutedtheerroneousremarks.

        Indeed,evensomeprominentUSscholarsandthinktankshavestudiedthedataandpublishedreportsrefutingthe"Chinadebt-traptheory".Forexample,DeborahBrautigamandMegRithmire,twodistinguishedprofessorsofpoliticaleconomyatJohnsHopkinsUniversityandHarvardUniversity,respectively,haveassertedthatChina"s"debttrap"isamyth.ThescholarsalsosaidthatinsomecountrieslikeMontenegro,KenyaandZambia,thereisclearevidencethattheWesternmediaspreadsuchfearswithoutprovidinganyevidencetosupporttheirclaim.

        Also,aRANDCorporationreportfromtheUSsaysthatrailwayconnectivitywillboosttheexportvalueofcountriesalongtheBeltandRoadby2.8percent.

        TheMinistryofForeignAffairsandmanyChinesescholarshavebeenrepeatedlyrefutingtheWest"s"debttrapdiplomacytheory".ForeignMinistryspokesmanWangWenbin,forinstance,quotedWorldBankdataonJuly2022tosaythat49Africancountrieshadborrowed$696billion.Butsome75percentcamefrommultilateralfinancialinstitutionsandprivatefinancialinstitutions.

        FourinterestingfeaturesofBRI

        OurresearchintotheBeltandRoadInitiativehasuncoveredfourinterestingfeatures.

        First,ironically,politiciansincountriesalongtheBeltandRoadroutewhohypedupthe"debttraptheory"arethefirstonestostrengthencooperationwithChinawhentheycometopower.Forinstanceiftheyhappentobeintheopposition,theycangainenoughpublicsupportandthusvotestoousttherulingpartybyleveragingChina"s"debttrapdiplomacytheory".

        Whatisreallyironicisthatoncetheseoppositionpoliticianscometopower,theydoaU-turnandseekChineseinvestmentsbecausetheyunderstandtheimportanceofboostingthenationaleconomy.

        Second,akeyfeatureofChineseinvestmentinBeltandRoadcountriesisthatittendstofocusonlong-termmutualeconomicbenefits.ThisisanaturalconsequenceofChina"spoliticalandsocialstructures.

        ItisthesuretythattheChinesegovernmentwillhonoritscommitmentsthathasearnedChinasupportandpraisefromtheBeltandRoadcountries.ThisisveryimportantastheperiodofROII(returnoninfrastructureinvestment)tendstobeverylongandprofitscannotbemadeintheshortterm.

        NowonderChineseinvestorsinBeltandRoadcountriesalwayspaygreaterattentiontolong-termratherthanshort-termeconomicbenefits.Forexample,accordingtoIndonesia"sofficialestimates,theJakarta-BandungrailwaylineinIndonesia,whichcouldstartoperationsfromMay,isbuiltbyChinaforacostofabout$8billion.

        Butwhileitislikelytogeneratemorethan$23.1billioninrevenue,itwilltakethenext40yearstorealizeit,accordingtoourresearch.

        ItisbecauseofsuchinfrastructureprojectsanddeepeningdiplomatictiesthatSino-Indonesiantraderelationswillcontinuetodeepen,buckingtheglobaltrend.Indeed,in2021bilateraltradereached$124.43billion,up58.6percentyear-on-year.

        Also,ChinahasbeenIndonesia"ssecond-largestforeigninvestorsince2019,andhasdiversifieditsinvestmentinfieldssuchaselectricity,mining,automobilemanufacturing,emergingnetworkindustries,aswellasfinancing.

        Third,interestingly,oneofthereasonswhydebtorcountrieswanttoborrowmoneyfromChinatobuildorimproveinfrastructureisbecauseitcanhelpthempaytheirdebtstoWesterncountries.

        Atpresent,about70percentoftheinvestmentsinBeltandRoadprojectsareconcentratedininfrastructureconstruction,andtherestinthefieldssuchastheenergy,health,innovativetechnology,andtourismsectors.

        BeltandRoadcountriesborrowmoneyfromChinatoimprovetheirinfrastructure,inordertodeveloptheireconomysotheycanrepaytheloanstakenfromWesterncountriesandmultilateralfinancialinstitutions.Improvementofinfrastructurecanboosttheeconomyandincreasegovernmentrevenue.That"swhytheJoeBidenadministrationhaslaunchedaninfrastructureplanworthmorethan$1.2trillion,hopingtostimulatetheUnitedStates"economicrecovery.

        TheinfrastructureconstructionneedsoftheBeltandRoadcountrieswereignoredbytheUSandEuropeancountriesandtheirbanks.Incontrast,ChinaiswillingtolendahelpinghandtosuchcountriesandprovideChinesetechnologyandstandardstobuildinfrastructurefacilities.

        OnlybypromotingeconomicdevelopmentandthusincreasingtaxrevenuescanagovernmentgeneratemorefundstorepaytheloansithastakenfromWesterncountriesandmultilateralfinancialinstitutions,boosttheeconomyandimprovepeople"slivelihoods.

        Fourth,thecontinuousandsubstantialinterestratehikesbytheUSFederalReserveandthenewwaveofCOVID-19infectionsaretherealchallengesBeltandRoadcountrieshavetoovercometoproperlymanagetheirdebts.Infact,theFed"srecentaggressiveinterestratehikeshavecauseddebtcrisesinmanyBeltandRoadcountrieswithrelativelyhighUSdollardebts.

        ManyBeltandRoadcountrieswithsignificantdebtrisksgenerallyhavediversecreditors—fromtheUStoEuropeancountriestoJapanandfromtheIMFtotheWorldBank.Chinaiscertainlynottheonlycreditorofcountrieswithhighdebtrisks.

        TheWestmusthelpdevelopingcountries

        SoinsteadofaccusingChinaofforcingBeltandRoadcountriesintoadebttrap,theWestshouldfocusonhowtohelpthedebtorcountriestoovercomethedebtchallengesandstrengthenconsultationandcooperationamongcountriestoprovidesystematicandcomprehensivesolutionsforcountries"debtresolution.

        Afterall,theonlylong-termandrealsolutionistoimplementacomprehensiveplanandfocusonassistingthesecountriestohastentheireconomicrecoveryandenhancetheirdevelopmentcapabilities.

        CharlesDarwinfamouslysaidthattheeventualsurvivalofaspeciesisnotbecauseitisthestrongestorthesmartest;itisbecauseitismostadaptabletochange.AmongalltheinvestmentprojectspromotingthedevelopmentoftheBeltandRoadInitiative,China"srateofinterestonloansmaynotbethelowestandChinesetechnologymaynotbethebestintheworld,butChineseprojectsarecertainlybestsuitedtopromotetheeconomicdevelopmentofBeltandRoadcountries.

        FengDaHsuanisthehonorarydeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitute;andLiangHaimingisthedeanofHainanUniversityBeltandRoadResearchInstitute.Theviewsdon"tnecessarilyrepresentthoseofChinaDaily.

        Ifyouhaveaspecificexpertise,orwouldliketoshareyourthoughtaboutourstories,thensendusyourwritingsatopinion@chinadaily.com.cn,andcomment@chinadaily.com.cn.

        Ifyouhaveanyproblemswiththisarticle,pleasecontactusatapp@chinadaily.com.cnandwe"llimmediatelygetbacktoyou.

        標簽: llimmediatelygetbacktoyou cnandwe haveassertedthatChina

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